Current Risk Assessment: 3-month recession probability stands at 28.8% and 6-month probability stands at 19.0%.
Objective
This model monitors the probability of a US recession over a 3 and 6-month horizon
Input
9 Macro-Financial signals, including Unemployment dynamics, Yield Curve spreads, Interest Rate cycles, and Equity Market momentum
Output
The model generates two probability curves (3-month and 6-month outlooks). Historical data (purple shaded areas) validate the model's accuracy in anticipating both recessionary entry points and the early stages of economic recovery.
FinIBot
Hi! I'm FinIBot, your FinIArt assistant. Ask me about our dashboards: VIX, S&P 500, Recession Risk, Economic Cycle, or Efficient Frontier.
